Last summer felt manageable. The weather stayed mild, the grid coasted, and most Texans didn't get a nasty surprise on their July bill.
This year looks different.
Forecasters expect Texas to set a new all-time record for electricity demand this summer. When the whole state cranks the AC at the same time, prices climb, and the people most exposed are the ones on the wrong kind of plan.
Here's the plain-English version of what's coming and what you can actually do about it.
The Number Everyone in Texas Energy Is Watching
Grid demand is measured in megawatts (MW). The higher the peak, the harder the grid works, and the more prices tend to move.
Look at how summer peaks have climbed:
That 2026 number is not a typo. It would be the highest peak Texas has ever recorded, roughly 10% above last summer.
More demand means the grid leans harder on every available power source, and that pressure has a way of showing up in what you pay.
Why This Summer Is Shaping Up Hotter
Two things are pushing demand up.
- A hotter weather pattern. A developing El Nino is warming the Pacific, raising the odds of a hotter-than-last-year summer. The northern half of the state, from the Panhandle through Dallas-Fort Worth, leans near-to-above-normal.
- A state that keeps growing. More homes, businesses, and people every year means more electricity pulled off the grid, even before the heat.
Put simply: more Texans running more AC on hotter days.
The Sneaky Part: It's the Evenings, Not Just the Afternoons
Most people assume the risky moment is mid-afternoon when it's hottest. Not quite. The tighter window is 9 to 11 pm.
- Solar power fades as the sun goes down.
- But it's still hot, so AC units keep running.
- The grid has to cover that gap with other sources.
If those sources fall short, that's when the grid gets stressed, and stress is what moves prices.
What About the Drought?
Drought matters because it feeds into how extreme the heat gets.
- Back in spring, large parts of Texas were in severe to extreme drought.
- By early June, conditions had improved a lot, which takes some pressure off.
That's good news, but it doesn't cancel the demand story. A cooler, wetter stretch could soften the peak. A dry, hot run could push it right up to the record forecast.
Grid Alert Explained Without the Jargon
You may see headlines about the grid operator issuing an alert or asking people to conserve. Here's what that actually means for a normal household or small business:
- The grid is running low on spare capacity.
- Wholesale electricity prices can spike hard during those hours.
- If you're on the wrong plan, those spikes can reach your bill.
The Plans That Get Hit vs. the Plans That Don't
Not every Texan feels a hot summer the same way. It comes down to your plan.
| Your Situation | Summer Risk |
| Variable-rate plan | High - rate can climb with the market |
| Plan expiring this summer | High - can roll onto pricey month-to-month rate |
| Locked-in fixed-rate plan | Low - rate holds through the heat |
What to Do Before the Heat Hits
You can't control the weather or the grid. You can control your plan. Three quick moves:
- Check your contract expiration date. If it ends soon, you're exposed right when prices peak. Not sure of your service location? Find your ESID first.
- Get off variable, onto fixed. A locked rate means a hot summer doesn't rewrite your bill.
- Lock in before peak demand, not during. Rates tend to look worse once everyone is scrambling in July.
Where Aggregate Energy Fits
We built Aggregate Energy for exactly this kind of summer.
- No commissions. We're not paid to push you toward one provider over another.
- No teaser rates. The low introductory number that jumps after two months is not our thing.
- Group buying power. We pool Texans together so you get pricing you'd struggle to find shopping alone.
A record-demand summer rewards the people who lock in early and punishes the ones who wait. Take a few minutes now, check your plan, and get ahead of it.
Enter your ZIP code to see where you stand before summer peaks.